So after months of debate, mudslinging, media hype, overzealous hyperbole and a million different pieces of "evidence" being bandied about in the media, I am FINALLY going to follow my OWN thread's lead and do what I asked of others: Outline my theories on this case based on what I've learned from reading what's been in the media.
I believe the following things:
-George Zimmerman had a sense of bias in his mind when he first observed Martin. He assumed Martin was a troublemaker with bad intentions based solely on his physical appearance. It was further fueled by the notion there had been burglaries in the neighborhood and there was at least a suspicion they were all perpetrated by young black men.
-GZ was in a sense "fed up" because he felt not enough was being done to protect the neighborhood.
-GZ has a history of being a sort of "wanna-be" cop. I believe his desire led him to feel like he had some sort of "duty" to go beyond his authority to "protect" his neighborhood.
-These things combined to cause GZ to lapse in judgement - even after being reminded by the 911 dispatcher not to - and set out on foot to follow Martin. I believe his intent was to detain him until the Police arrived - to make sure this one didn't "get away."
-I bellieve GZ thought that because he was armed, he would be able to detain him and did not have any fear of going after Martin.
-I believe Martin very aware that he was being followed, and that he was angered at the idea of being looked at suspiciously when he was doing nothing wrong.
-I believe that Martin saw an opportunity to get the drop on the man following him - and slipped out of view of GZ for some small amount of time.
-I believe Martin surprised GZ and confronted him, wanting to know why he was following him. Its likely he was pretty angry and confrontational. He may well have gotten very close to him in an attempt to get him to back off.
-I believe at this point GZ's instinct to fight kicked in, and the two probably exchanged some words. Both men likely believed they were fully in the right, and neither has any intentions of backing down from the other. This is likely the point where it became clear to both there would be a physical confrontation.
-I believe it was at this point GZ either drew, or attempted to draw his gun - again - with the primary intention of detaining Martin, but now with the added mounting adreneline of an impending fight. GZ was probably beginning to fear Martin, and realize that he was in over his head and no longer was in the position of power.
-I believe Martin struck GZ in the face - either as or before the gun was drawn. The blow was probably strong enough to knock GZ to the ground. With a direct punch to the face, it's quite possible GZ was knocked backwards and fell flat on his back, which could have resulted in both the back injury he claimed, and if he fell onto the sidewalk - at least one of the lacerations to the back of his head.
-I belive at this point the two engaged on the ground in a struggle. There may have been more blows delivered to GZ here, although I'm not sure. One solid punch to the nose could have easily resulted in the apparent injuries. I have not seen nor heard accounts of multiple bruises or abrasions to GZ's face, so this struggle could also have been more of a wrestling situation - especially if GZ had already drawn his gun. Martin may well have been trying to get it away from him - or get to it if had been dropped when GZ was knocked down. Witnesses account support the idea they were possibly rolling and moving around - so they could have been on the sidewalk at somepoint - where one or more of GZ's head lacerations could have occurred. One of them looked to me like a fairly long cut - which makes me think his head was dragged over the concrete at some point. A small stone of shard of glass could have opened up the laceration in that case.
-I believe that GZ felt he was losing the fight and began screaming - partly from fear and adreneline, and partly in the hopes someone nearby would intervene.
-I believe that at some point GZ was able to either regain a position of dominance (on top of Martin) or to extricated himself from the struggle long enough to grasp, aim and fire his gun. With somewhat remarkable accuracy - hitting Martin cleanly in the heart with a single bullet.
-I believe GZ was very aware there were people that had heard and or seen the struggle, or that the police were approaching the scene, as he immediately put the weapon on the ground, raised his hands in the air and stated that he had shot in self-defense.
-I believe that BOTH men were aggressive toward each other in this situation at the beginning, and both men feared for their safety and/or lives at the end of it.
All that said, I believe that IF this case ever makes it to trial (which I think is about 50% likely) that the most crucial pieces of the evidence that will be presented are WHEN and HOW GZ got his hands on his weapon, and the POSITION of the two men when the fatal shot was fired. The second part of this should be reasonably well reconstructed by the prosecution.
When all is said and done, I believe that either the case will NOT come to trial, or that GZ will be found not guilty because of simply not enough physical evidence to convict.
I also believe, a la the OJ Simpson saga, that AFTER the criminal trial has come and gone, (and the almost-certain public outcry and protests, etc.) that Martin's family will file a wrongful death lawsuit. There will be a civil trail, and GZ will be found liable for Martin's wrongful death and be hit with a huge judgement. His life will basically be ruined (it already is) and the Martin family will never get their son back. Also lots of people who have no connection to either of them will make LOTS of money writing books, making films, doing interviews, etc. for years after this case has faded away.
I believe the following things:
-George Zimmerman had a sense of bias in his mind when he first observed Martin. He assumed Martin was a troublemaker with bad intentions based solely on his physical appearance. It was further fueled by the notion there had been burglaries in the neighborhood and there was at least a suspicion they were all perpetrated by young black men.
-GZ was in a sense "fed up" because he felt not enough was being done to protect the neighborhood.
-GZ has a history of being a sort of "wanna-be" cop. I believe his desire led him to feel like he had some sort of "duty" to go beyond his authority to "protect" his neighborhood.
-These things combined to cause GZ to lapse in judgement - even after being reminded by the 911 dispatcher not to - and set out on foot to follow Martin. I believe his intent was to detain him until the Police arrived - to make sure this one didn't "get away."
-I bellieve GZ thought that because he was armed, he would be able to detain him and did not have any fear of going after Martin.
-I believe Martin very aware that he was being followed, and that he was angered at the idea of being looked at suspiciously when he was doing nothing wrong.
-I believe that Martin saw an opportunity to get the drop on the man following him - and slipped out of view of GZ for some small amount of time.
-I believe Martin surprised GZ and confronted him, wanting to know why he was following him. Its likely he was pretty angry and confrontational. He may well have gotten very close to him in an attempt to get him to back off.
-I believe at this point GZ's instinct to fight kicked in, and the two probably exchanged some words. Both men likely believed they were fully in the right, and neither has any intentions of backing down from the other. This is likely the point where it became clear to both there would be a physical confrontation.
-I believe it was at this point GZ either drew, or attempted to draw his gun - again - with the primary intention of detaining Martin, but now with the added mounting adreneline of an impending fight. GZ was probably beginning to fear Martin, and realize that he was in over his head and no longer was in the position of power.
-I believe Martin struck GZ in the face - either as or before the gun was drawn. The blow was probably strong enough to knock GZ to the ground. With a direct punch to the face, it's quite possible GZ was knocked backwards and fell flat on his back, which could have resulted in both the back injury he claimed, and if he fell onto the sidewalk - at least one of the lacerations to the back of his head.
-I belive at this point the two engaged on the ground in a struggle. There may have been more blows delivered to GZ here, although I'm not sure. One solid punch to the nose could have easily resulted in the apparent injuries. I have not seen nor heard accounts of multiple bruises or abrasions to GZ's face, so this struggle could also have been more of a wrestling situation - especially if GZ had already drawn his gun. Martin may well have been trying to get it away from him - or get to it if had been dropped when GZ was knocked down. Witnesses account support the idea they were possibly rolling and moving around - so they could have been on the sidewalk at somepoint - where one or more of GZ's head lacerations could have occurred. One of them looked to me like a fairly long cut - which makes me think his head was dragged over the concrete at some point. A small stone of shard of glass could have opened up the laceration in that case.
-I believe that GZ felt he was losing the fight and began screaming - partly from fear and adreneline, and partly in the hopes someone nearby would intervene.
-I believe that at some point GZ was able to either regain a position of dominance (on top of Martin) or to extricated himself from the struggle long enough to grasp, aim and fire his gun. With somewhat remarkable accuracy - hitting Martin cleanly in the heart with a single bullet.
-I believe GZ was very aware there were people that had heard and or seen the struggle, or that the police were approaching the scene, as he immediately put the weapon on the ground, raised his hands in the air and stated that he had shot in self-defense.
-I believe that BOTH men were aggressive toward each other in this situation at the beginning, and both men feared for their safety and/or lives at the end of it.
All that said, I believe that IF this case ever makes it to trial (which I think is about 50% likely) that the most crucial pieces of the evidence that will be presented are WHEN and HOW GZ got his hands on his weapon, and the POSITION of the two men when the fatal shot was fired. The second part of this should be reasonably well reconstructed by the prosecution.
When all is said and done, I believe that either the case will NOT come to trial, or that GZ will be found not guilty because of simply not enough physical evidence to convict.
I also believe, a la the OJ Simpson saga, that AFTER the criminal trial has come and gone, (and the almost-certain public outcry and protests, etc.) that Martin's family will file a wrongful death lawsuit. There will be a civil trail, and GZ will be found liable for Martin's wrongful death and be hit with a huge judgement. His life will basically be ruined (it already is) and the Martin family will never get their son back. Also lots of people who have no connection to either of them will make LOTS of money writing books, making films, doing interviews, etc. for years after this case has faded away.
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