mdvaldosta
Active Member
I do. Not sure if I'm into alien body snatching or anything - but life has to exist elsewhere. Doubtful it does anywhere else in our solar system but I'm sure we'll find it someday.
mdvaldosta said:I do. Not sure if I'm into alien body snatching or anything - but life has to exist elsewhere. Doubtful it does anywhere else in our solar system but I'm sure we'll find it someday.
OUZBnd said:I think we would have to be pretty naive to think that we are the only lifeforms in the whole solar system.
AtlanticBlue99 said:and what if when we met them they killed us lol
lemon said:well, at least we'd know that they exist before we died
This section attempts to list best current estimates for the parameters of the Drake equation.
R* = the rate of star creation in our galaxy
Estimated by Drake as 10/year.
fp = the fraction of those stars which have planets
Estimated by Drake as 0.5.
ne = the average number of planets (or rather satelites; moons may perhaps sometimes be just as good candidates) which can potentially support life per star that has planets
Estimated by Drake as 2.
fl = the fraction of the above which actually go on to develop life
Estimated by Drake as 1.
In 2002, Charles H. Lineweaver and Tamara M. Davis (at the University of New South Wales and the Australian Centre for Astrobiology) estimated fl as > 0.33 using a statistical argument based on the length of time life took to evolve on Earth. Lineweaver has also determined that about 10% of star systems in the Galaxy are hospitable to life, by having heavy elements, being far from supernovae and being stable themselves for sufficient time. [1]
fi = the fraction of the above which actually go on to develop intelligent life
Estimated by Drake as 0.01.
Today, solar systems in galactic orbits with radiation exposure as low as Earth's solar system are thought to be more than 100,000 times rarer, however, giving a value of fi = 1×10-7.
fc = the fraction of the above which are willing and able to communicate
Estimated by Drake as 0.01.
L = the expected lifetime of such a civilization
Estimated by Drake as 10 years.
The value of L can be estimated from the lifetime of our current civilization from the advent of radio astronomy in 1938 (dated from Grote Reber's parabolic dish radio telescope) to the current date. In 2005, this gives an L of 67 years.
In an article in Scientific American, Michael Shermer estimated L as 420 years, based on compiling the durations of sixty historical civilizations. Using twenty-eight civilizations more recent than the Roman Empire he calculates a figure of 304 years for "modern" civilizations. Note, however, that the fall of most of these civilizations did not destroy their technology, and they were succeeded by later civilizations which carried on those technologies, so Shermer's estimates should be regarded as pessimistic.
The equation based on current lower estimates, therefore, is thus:
R* = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 0.33, fi = 1×10-7, fc = 0.01, and L = 67 years
N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 1×10-7 × 0.01 × 67 = 2.211×10-7 = 0.0000002211
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