Iraq, Afghan War Cost: $1 Trillion

[IntruderLS1]

I can see that your ego hasn't changed lol.

Still a small planet eh?

I'm not sure exactly where you're going with that, but as a side observation, you're the only one I challange for proof, and I only do it because I thought it was how you communicated.

You challange everybody to proove out their views. You call B.S. on anything not backed up by fact. ... What you said cannot be backed up by fact. Hence my confidence.

We depend on cheap labor way too much to say "yeah we don't need china!" How many things are actually made in America anymore? Not much.

Do you think China is the only place in the world with cheap labor? Supply and demand says that if prices went up, then somebody would start manufacturing items here again. We did just fine that way for a couple of hundred years. There is no reason to believe that suddenly it isn't possible.

We have more material capability in this country than almost anywhere else in the world. If anybody was going to be forced into self sufficiency, we would be the ones to survive it.

We can grow our own food, drill our own oil, dig our own ore, generate our own power, build our own vehicles, defend what we have from marauders, etc....

Prices would go up, but that's fine.

 

[IntruderLS1]

You are sadly mistaken if you don't think that the economic welfare of the rest of the world doesn't directly affect us. The value of the US dollar holds much less value than it did. It is no longer backed with gold which is very dangerous. We print what we need lowering the value of the dollar even more. If China or Japan were to play economic hardball with us, there is little recourse. This is something that our military couldn't fix.

source...

I haven't forgotten you Tim. I just don't have time right now. I'll respond to this in length though.

Part in bold is not what I think in the slightest. I understand and appreciate how much the world economy works in our little slice of heaven here at home.

That is different than saying China has us over a barrel.

 

[Tim]

I haven't forgotten you Tim. I just don't have time right now. I'll respond to this in length though.

Part in bold is not what I think in the slightest. I understand and appreciate how much the world economy works in our little slice of heaven here at home.

That is different than saying China has us over a barrel.

This is a pretty bold statement in the article I posted... wouldn't you agree?

Chinese state media referred to the country’s stockpile of U.S. dollars as its economic “nuclear option,” capable of destroying the dollar at will.

 

[groundpounder]

Chinese state media referred to the country’s stockpile of U.S. dollars as its economic “nuclear option,” capable of destroying the dollar at will.

Bold statement to end all bold statements.

If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell in Arizona that has an oceanfront view.

But I like the article - properly sources, full of facts, and those rock. :clap

 

[Tim]

This is why China holds some clout when it comes to our economic solvency...

The danger, as the Telegraph notes, relates to the fact that China holds such a large amount of treasuries. Any confirmed evidence that China was no longer supporting the dollar, and was actually selling it, risks setting off “an unstoppable stampede” in which other nations would seek to dump their holdings before China swamps the market and demand for dollars is overwhelmed.
The implications of a run on the dollar due to Chinese treasury-dumping go far beyond just the value of the greenback.

as more of our debt is controlled by foreign interests, so grows the risk of having a worthless dollar.
You also have to look at our loss of bargaining power with China. We say jump, they hold up our note and flip us the bird....

 

[IntruderLS1]

This is a pretty bold statement in the article I posted... wouldn't you agree?

It is a very bold statement. The source is moderately suspect however. It is Communist run state agency. Part of the Communist dialectic (sp?) is the projection of power.

The Soviets used to rant on about how easily they could destroy us too.

The problem I have with your article is that it is making several worst case scenario assumptions and presenting them as if they are the most likely occurrence. This simply isn't true. Iran has a ton of our money too, and they've been actively trying to undermine us for years, but it hasn't mattered.

Here is the deal with China. Let's say they wanted to play knuckleball with us, and they're going to "destroy" to dollar. What is our response? Well, we'll probably stop trading with China. Who loses that fight? We're unconvinced for the better part of six months or a year with trickle effect being measurable for a while longer, while China's economy is devastated. How long do you think their reserves are going to hold out if we stopped trade with them?

Now they have another problem though. Now the Chinese people are getting used to nicer houses. They like driving in cars. They like having computers at home. ... They're not going to be real happy taking a step back in time 50 years overnight. Civil unrest will very likely grow to destructive levels in months.

International strength wanes. Technological strength wanes. Economy that is based almost exclusively off trade with a single partner would be in ruins.

You see what I mean? They beat these war drums because it's what they do. It does manage to get them some concessions out of us, but in the end, they can't hurt us without destroying themselves. They need us FAR more than we need them. If trade stopped, how long do you think it would take for Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, etc... to pick up the slack and start production? They would probably have product rolling off the lines before the last Chinese tanker was unloaded in LA.

The best they can hope for is an economic version of M.A.D. Unfortunately for them, the "D" is only going to be on their side of the pond.

There are many advantages to having a weaker currency in a first world nation that people don't think about. It makes our products cheaper overseas (More export / manufacturing jobs), and it brings people in from abroad because they can buy more with less.

Visiting England last year was awsome, but if my dollar had been worth two pounds instead of the other way around, you better believe I'd be back there again this year!!

 

[Tim]

The part about a weaker dollar have some benefits to it are a stretch at best. For every percentage point the value of the dollar falls, we loose the same percentage points in our wealth. If the dollar were to crash to half it's current strength, our nations wealth would also be halved. There is nothing good about that. There is not an economist in the world that would wish a weaker dollar so that there is more opportunity of exporting our goods to other nations.

As far as China wantonly hurting us. I don't see that happening either. You are absolutely right in the fact that it would hurt them even more. But you also have to look at it from the mob mentality. China doesn't need to sell off the dollar to cause a shut down of our economy. They merely need to create a little panic in the rest of the world and other countries will be dumping the dollar just to keep themselves from loosing out.

Now will any of this happen? I don't think so... but we need to remember that although we are the worlds super power, we cannot do it alone. We are very dependent on the rest of the world and an economic collapse of China, Japan, etc could have devastating effects here at home.

My main point in all of this, talks about the price we pay for borrowing...
All the money we borrow from foreign countries comes with a high price...

 

[groundpounder]

You also have to look at our loss of bargaining power with China. We say jump, they hold up our note and flip us the bird....

I point to what you pointed to:
What is the likelihood of this? About as great as the likelihood of Russia "pushing the button" during the 50's-80's. Which is not very.

In situations like this, I like to deal in probabilities. I do not profess to know how much of Treasuries China holds - the Telegraph says it's "large amounts." OK, relative to what? The GDP? Our national productivity? Not sure.

My head's not in the sand over the interdependence of the world economy, but I don't think the sky is falling because the Telegraph et al says China can sneeze and give the US Economy the flu, either.

Number 1, because I'm not 100% sure they can and number 2, if they could they wouldn't anyway. :smiley24:

 

[IntruderLS1]

The part about a weaker dollar have some benefits to it are a stretch at best. For every percentage point the value of the dollar falls, we loose the same percentage points in our wealth. If the dollar were to crash to half it's current strength, our nations wealth would also be halved. There is nothing good about that. There is not an economist in the world that would wish a weaker dollar so that there is more opportunity of exporting our goods to other nations.

Not true sir. We're always bitching and moaning about how China is unfairly keeping the value of their money artifically low. They're doing it because it gives them a sales advantage.

Strong dollar = strong buying power in the world.
Weak dollar = strong selling power in the world.

Nobody here will argue that our buying power in the world is in a league all its own. One thing you will hear a lot of though (mostly from liberals) is that our selling power isn't strong enough. I feel that we could afford to come down quite a bit on the buying part and still be world class, but have the added advantage of also keeping our manufacturing sectors alive. (Can of worms B: Now we need more workers)

As far as China wantonly hurting us. I don't see that happening either. You are absolutely right in the fact that it would hurt them even more. But you also have to look at it from the mob mentality. China doesn't need to sell off the dollar to cause a shut down of our economy. They merely need to create a little panic in the rest of the world and other countries will be dumping the dollar just to keep themselves from loosing out.

I agree. That's what I think they're doing too. Trying to hurt us without hurting themselves. The problem is, it isn't working. The U.S. dollar is the foundation of the world economy. If our dollar falls, so does their hoarded wealth. It would suck for their team if they went to bed on Sunday night with 1.5 Trillion U.S. Dollars in the bank, but then woke up on Monday realizing that it was only worth 750 Billion!! LOL.

Now will any of this happen? I don't think so... but we need to remember that although we are the worlds super power, we cannot do it alone. We are very dependent on the rest of the world and an economic collapse of China, Japan, etc could have devastating effects here at home.

I agree with the exception of "devastating." How devastating do you think it would be? We're buyers. Buyers are inconvienced by lack of supply, but suppliers are crippled by lack of demand.

My main point in all of this, talks about the price we pay for borrowing...
All the money we borrow from foreign countries comes with a high price...

I agree. True in personal finances as well as national. You are 1000% right on here.

 

[All Else Failed]

I'm too lazy to really read into Intruder's comments (skimmed through them), but the US needs countries like China to pump out cheap products to sell to their citizenry for low prices. Our economy depends on it. India is pretty big on that list too. yeah, if every one of those countries cut us off, we could probably survive, but be ready for a recession that would make the one we had previously cry like a little bitch in the corner.

 

[groundpounder]

I'm too lazy to really read....

that's all we needed to hear.

 

[All Else Failed]

I'm Illiterate

 

[Peter Parka]

I'm Illiterate

You sure you dont mean illegitimate? :jk

 

[All Else Failed]

Both. :^(

 

[IntruderLS1]

I'm too lazy to really read into Intruder's comments (skimmed through them), but the US needs countries like China to pump out cheap products to sell to their citizenry for low prices. Our economy depends on it. India is pretty big on that list too. yeah, if every one of those countries cut us off, we could probably survive, but be ready for a recession that would make the one we had previously cry like a little bitch in the corner.

You see, if you had actually taken the time to read what I said, you would realize how much you buy into lib propaganda.

Are you talking about the "Worse than the great depression" recession we went through a few years ago?

I gotta tell you, I don't remember 25% of the country being out of work, and driving past food lines everyday. But if that's what you want to close your eyes and believe, ... it's a free country.

 

[All Else Failed]

You see, if you had actually taken the time to read what I said, you would realize how much you buy into lib propaganda.

Are you talking about the "Worse than the great depression" recession we went through a few years ago?

I gotta tell you, I don't remember 25% of the country being out of work, and driving past food lines everyday. But if that's what you want to close your eyes and believe, ... it's a free country.

No, the one in the 30's.

 

[IntruderLS1]

No, the one in the 30's.

You think if we stopped trading with China we would sufer something far worse than the great depression?? :confused

 

[All Else Failed]

You think if we stopped trading with China we would sufer something far worse than the great depression?? :confused

No, if they decided to call us out on our massive debt we owe to them , we'd be in deep shit.

 

[IntruderLS1]

Alright. You win.

We suck.

 

[All Else Failed]

I'm glad you agree.