Hurricane Irene

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Aries

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http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2011/08/hurricane_irene_forecast_shift.html

Hurricane Irene forecast shifts west, impacts on N.J. could be severe

State and National Weather Service officials are urging New Jersey residents to prepare for Hurricane Irene now, as several factors could align to make the impacts of the approaching cyclone potentially disastrous for New Jersey.
It’s important to note we are still days away from Irene, which was packing 115 mile per hour winds this morning as it swirled through the Bahamas, making its closest approach to the state and forecasts could still change. But as of this morning, forecasts have Irene tracking within miles of the New Jersey coast as a hurricane Sunday (see interactive map below), and the impacts of the storm statewide could be severe.
“Everyone should be preparing for this storm as now is the time. Have a plan in place,” wrote Dean Iovino and Michael Gorse, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, in their morning forecast discussion. “Everything remains on the table with this hurricane, which includes widespread damaging winds, torrential rain, coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents/waves and beach erosion.”
Current forecast guidance suggests Hurricane Irene will turn northward today and tomorrow as it approaches the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center said it appears a trough will form along the east coast, providing an alleyway for the cyclone to travel northward rather than curl out to sea.
Hurricane Watches were issued along the North Carolina coast this morning, and tropical storm watches extend further south along South Carolina and Georgia. At this time, it appears the greatest impacts from Irene would be felt in New Jersey overnight Saturday through about midday Sunday, according to NWS Mount Holly.
A number of other factors play into Irene’s impact on New Jersey. According to New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University David Robinson, New Jersey’s statewide average for rainfall this month is already more than double what it typically is, while some towns in the state appear to have already tripled their average August rainfall.

As a result, the soil is already fairly saturated, leaving river levels above average and making it easier for trees to be uprooted by high winds. In southern New Jersey, among the hardest hit by August rains, several dams failed during a storm two weeks ago, prompting inspections of dozens of others in the region.
To make matters worse, a storm system is expected to bring heavy rains, and perhaps flash flooding, to parts of the state today – which would only exacerbate existing conditions ahead of Irene.
Along the coast, the storm is set to coincide with a new moon, meaning that high tides will already be above normal levels. This could make any coastal flooding impacts of Irene more severe.
State officials have been monitoring the storm and are urging New Jersey residents to prepare for the worst now.
“We’re telling people, ‘ listen, take today and tomorrow to prepare. Don’t wait.’ Have a full tank of gas, plenty of food in the house, blankets and clothes in your car. Make sure you’re prepared just in case,” said state police Sgt. Brian Polite, noting evacuation plans, should they be necessary are in place and ready to be activated. “Right now, we’re watching, waiting and getting ready.”
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hurricane_irene_path_200.jpg
 
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http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/08/as_hurricane_irene_approaches.html

As Hurricane Irene nears, Gov. Christie declares a state of emergency to mobilize National Guard

EWING — Gov. Chris Christie declared a state of emergency today and called on the state's shore residents and visitors to evacuate in the next 24 hours in preparation of Hurricane Irene.
Christie said he was still weighing whether to order a mandatory evacuation of the shore areas. For now, he said people on a barrier island and any other beach community from Sandy Hook to Cape May should begin preparing now to leave.
"We are not overreacting, we need to be ready for this," Christie said.
He said that based on the state's tracking, the eye of the hurricane, or the most violent part of the storm, could make landfall over Cape May or Atlantic County some time Saturday.
The storm surges, coupled with unusually high tides, could cause extensive flooding across the state, where the ground is already saturated, as well as damage to the coastline, he said.
Christie warned residents that the storm is not to be taken lightly.
"I've lived here my whole life and I understand the cry wolf syndrome. ... This is not one of those circumstances," Christie said.
The governor said he would lead by example by packing up his family, which is currently vacationing at Island Beach State Park.
"I'm on a barrier island with my wife and four kids, and I will not be there tonight," he said.

Charlie McKenna, director of the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness, urged residents to begin buying supplies, including bottled water and nonperishable canned goods.
He said residents should also have first-aid kits, flashlights and batteries on hand.
More information can be found at http://ready.nj.gov/.
Current forecast guidance suggests Hurricane Irene will turn northward today and tomorrow as it approaches the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center said it appears a trough will form along the east coast, providing an alleyway for the cyclone to travel northward rather than curl out to sea.
Hurricane watches were issued along the North Carolina coast this morning, and tropical storm watches extend further south along South Carolina and Georgia. At this time, it appears the greatest impacts from Irene would be felt in New Jersey overnight Saturday through about midday Sunday, according to NWS Mount Holly.

A number of other factors play into Irene’s impact on New Jersey. According to New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University David Robinson, New Jersey’s statewide average for rainfall this month is already more than double what it typically is, while some towns in the state appear to have already tripled their average August rainfall.
As a result, the soil is already fairly saturated, leaving river levels above average and making it easier for trees to be uprooted by high winds. In southern New Jersey, among the hardest hit by August rains, several dams failed during a storm two weeks ago, prompting inspections of dozens of others in the region.
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I realize this probably doesn't mean much to most of you, but I thought I would update anyway.
 
purpledove

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I saw the news reports/warnings at CNN concurrent with the earthquake reports. Am hoping it will change it's course.

Stay safe you guys!
 
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Its coming to NC this weekend. Everyone is panicking on the coast, but not so much inland. Time will tell where it really impacts things. I'm not running out and buying bread and water just yet.
 
Joe the meek

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BadBoy said:
Its coming to NC this weekend. Everyone is panicking on the coast, but not so much inland. Time will tell where it really impacts things. I'm not running out and buying bread and water just yet.
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I'm hoping to get out to Topsail next weekend, hope it doesn't ruin the plans. Heck, where I'm at, only a chance of showers maybe tomorrow.
 
BadBoy

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Joe the meek said:
I'm hoping to get out to Topsail next weekend, hope it doesn't ruin the plans. Heck, where I'm at, only a chance of showers maybe tomorrow.
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I just went to Topsail last Friday :) I'm hoping this doesn't erode the beaches too much there. I love it.

Stay safe! I'm hoping we just get wind here in Raleigh, I'll just Xbox it until power goes out.
 
MjaneGibson

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NYC is preparing now...we are shutting the entire transportation system saturday morning/afternoon...NYC doesn't care about making money?..we are in trouble...
 
JanieDough

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Our Local Meteorologist:

Remember in the days leading up to Hurricane Katrina, when the national media was almost joking about New Orleans being like a fish bowl and if the levees break the city will go under water? People knew of the possibility, but never really thought it would happen. Well, I wonder if we're about to see the same thing in the Northeast...except a lot more people are in the path. People have heard that parts of New York City may be under water, the subways and tunnels flooded, windows shattered in some high-rise buildings, etc. I wonder how many of the people up there will actually evacuate, or if they even have the means to evacuate. Looking at the latest meteorological data on Irene and the projected paths from the computer models, this has a hauntingly similar feel to the days preceding Katrina six years ago. The hurricane may not be as strong, but the results could still be devastating. -David Paul, Chief Meteorologist
 
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