Fiscal Cliff

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Accountable

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Does anybody believe this really is a "cliff"? If it was really serious, they would (will?) just extend the deadline.




What Is the Fiscal Cliff? - Council on Foreign Relations
What are the components of the fiscal cliff?
The following set of revenue and spending measures are set to expire or take effect at year's end, representing an acute fiscal consolidation that could be further intensified by a potential showdown over the debt ceiling.


Revenue Increases


2001/2003/2010 Tax Cuts & AMT Patch. This series of legislation, often referred to collectively as the "Bush tax cuts," will expire on December 31, 2012, raising all income tax rates (top will go from 35 to 39.6 percent), as well as rates on estate and capital gains taxes. The alternative minimum tax (AMT) will also automatically apply to millions more citizens.
Payroll Tax Cut. The Social Security payroll tax holiday will expire December 31, raising the rate from 4.2 to 6.2 percent.
Other Provisions. Several other policies such as the Research and Experimentation tax credit, many of which are typically enacted retroactively, are due to sunset at years' end.
Affordable Care Act Taxes. Some provisions in the Obama health-care legislation, including increased tax rates on high-income earners, are set to take effect in January 2013.
Spending Cuts


Budget Control Act. The automatic spending cuts or sequester legislated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 will hit January 2. Half of the scheduled annual cuts ($109 billion/year from 2013-2021) will come directly from the national defense budget, half from non-defense. However, some 70 percent of mandatory spending will be exempt.
Extended Unemployment Benefits. The eligibility to begin receiving federal unemployment benefits, last extended in February, will expire at year's end.
Medicare "Doc Fix." The rates at which Medicare pays physicians will decrease nearly 30 percent on December 31.
Debt Ceiling


The debt limit, which sets the maximum amount of outstanding federal debt the U.S. government can incur by law, is currently capped at $16.39 trillion. Treasury is expected to hit this borrowing capacity again sometime in early 2013. Analysts fear another protracted debate over the debt ceiling could bring repercussions similar to those that followed the debt battle in summer of 2011, which rattled financial markets and, according to a study from the Government Accountability Office, raised the cost of Treasury's borrowing by $1.3 billion for FY2011.
 
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Alien Allen

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It is made up crap to make us think they are working on behalf of our best interests

In the end.........

Same Tree.... Different Monkeys

And we sit underneath getting shit on.

Again
 

The Man

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IMO its just a coined term.
Taxes are going to increase.
Spending will go down...but it actually wont...sure some things may be cut..but merely be replaced or renamed.

Here is what gets me...if spending is going down as they claim..and taxes going up ..then why do we need to raise the debt ceiling if we are going to be paying off debt.

Sadly..I see the same ole same ole..just false promises and a continued path of increased spending.
 

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Here is what gets me...if spending is going down as they claim..and taxes going up ..then why do we need to raise the debt ceiling if we are going to be paying off debt.
Outstanding observation, TM.

I say it's a bluff. Theatrics. The Budget Control Act was put in place in August, 2011. The same people that voted for it are still in office. Either they support its actions, in which case they are lying to The People about how terrible it will be, or they don't, in which case they are playing status quo brinksmanship and will kick the can down the road ... again.
 

The Man

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Outstanding observation, TM.

I say it's a bluff. Theatrics. The Budget Control Act was put in place in August, 2011. The same people that voted for it are still in office. Either they support its actions, in which case they are lying to The People about how terrible it will be, or they don't, in which case they are playing status quo brinksmanship and will kick the can down the road ... again.

Yes how to raise taxes and have the public feel good about it...debt reduction being the lure.
Since revenues haven't been going down and are actually more now than when the bush tax cuts were put in place..I dont understand why they need to let them expire off.
Especially now..our economy hasnt been on the gain long enough to take more tax hikes.
We are just now starting to see progress from the recession...IMO we should not allow any tax raises until unemployment gets down to about 5 percent. {or the speed is heading us that}
Imo we just arent moving fast enough in the recovery to warrant more taxes.
With more revenues now that before the cuts took place...and the promise of reduced spending..it makes no sense to allow hikes{the tax cuts to expire}.
I am sure I am not the only one that sees this...IMO we have some pretty weak members in the house representing us as not enough of them are expressing any outrage.
 

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Yes how to raise taxes and have the public feel good about it...debt reduction being the lure.
Since revenues haven't been going down and are actually more now than when the bush tax cuts were put in place..I dont understand why they need to let them expire off.
Especially now..our economy hasnt been on the gain long enough to take more tax hikes.
We are just now starting to see progress from the recession...IMO we should not allow any tax raises until unemployment gets down to about 5 percent. {or the speed is heading us that}
Imo we just arent moving fast enough in the recovery to warrant more taxes.
With more revenues now that before the cuts took place...and the promise of reduced spending..it makes no sense to allow hikes{the tax cuts to expire}.
I am sure I am not the only one that sees this...IMO we have some pretty weak members in the house representing us as not enough of them are expressing any outrage.


Since revenues haven't been going down

Nope.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget

CBO_-_Revenues_and_Outlays_as_percent_GDP.png


excerpt>
Several government agencies provide budget data and analysis. These include the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congressional Budget Office, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Treasury Department. These agencies have reported that the federal government is facing a series of important financing challenges. In the short-run, tax revenues have declined significantly due to a severe recession and tax policy choices, while expenditures have expanded for wars, unemployment insurance and other safety net spending.[SUP][1][/SUP][SUP][2][/SUP] In the long-run, expenditures related to healthcare programs such as Medicare and Medicaid are projected to grow faster than the economy overall as the population matures.

You are incorrect on that, TM
 

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The Man;22749 As we can see through the ups and down we are still up.[/QUOTE said:
Your method of addressing revenue streams is neither the standard used by economists nor relevant to comparing revenue and the economy over time.
Using revenue as a % of GDP is.

You are simply wrong

CBO_-_Revenues_and_Outlays_as_percent_GDP.png
 

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BTW.......that Wikipedia graph is identical to the one used in the TED video and was referenced as a revenue decline since 2008.
 

The Man

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Not at all....revenues are up

53.61_2406.87_2567.98_2523.99_2104.99_2162.72_2303.png

And they would be higher if we were in a recession.
Notice the large revenues before the onset of the recession 03 to 07 was a steady climb then the dip.{recession}
Then have been going back up for the last three years.
With revenues going up...and spending supposed to be going down why do we need tax hikes and raise the debt ceiling again?

Tax hikes do not always bring more revenue it begins to slow the economy which reduces trading which reduces funds received by the govt.

Your chart is going by the percentage of GDP which is not the amount of govt revenues..but rather a relationship to GDP.
Just because the GDP is higher doesn't mean the govt needs more money.
 

The Man

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BTW.......that Wikipedia graph is identical to the one used in the TED video and was referenced as a revenue decline since 2008.

Revenue decline to GDP?
That is not an amount of Govt revenues...I gave the actual Govt revenue...which has been going up the last three years..as will continue to climb as we come out of the recession.
 

The Man

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Here is the GDP for the last several years as we can see it went up...when it goes up the {same amount of gov funds} will be lower if the revenues stay the same.
This chart shows why the percentage to GDP is down is because GDP went up.
Again just because GDP goes up doesnt mean the govt has to spend more.

_11853.3_12623_13377.2_14028.7_14369.1_13939_14508.png
 

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Here is the GDP for the last several years as we can see it went up...when it goes up the {same amount of gov funds} will be lower if the revenues stay the same.
This chart shows why the percentage to GDP is down is because GDP went up.
Again just because GDP goes up doesnt mean the govt has to spend more.




The Wikipedia graph is still the representation of revenue streams versus the condition of an economy......exactly why your representations aren't relevant.
 

The Man

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The Wikipedia graph is still the representation of revenue streams versus the condition of an economy......exactly why your representations aren't relevant.

Its just a percentage and doesnt equate to the actual revenues.
lets say the fed govt needs 3 trillion to run off of for one year{just tossing out a random figure here}...what difference does it make if that 3 trillion is 20 30 or 40 percent of GDP...It doesnt....as long as they get their 3 trillion.
Your graph only offers the "excuse" for a tax hike to make it appear revenues are down ..when the revenues are not down...as per my graph

And we also must consider when GDP is higher in general so are revenues as the govt is benefiting from business...thus more revenues as a result....the percentage of GDP may not follow with linearity but its still an increase in revenues.

We want the govt to operate on a lower percentage of GDP not a higher percentage of GDP.
Something else to consider is state and local spending as well..it has increased...thus showing larger responsibilities are being held by the state and local govts...thus the feds should be able to operate on less.
Spending has increased 40 times since 1960 for fed state and local combined.
While we have population growth and inflation to adjust for for that 40x figure we can see that spending increases are actually just a trend and not an actual necessity.
How much more does our govt do for us than they did in 1960....same needs same people.
I just cant agree to any more hikes...I want to see reduced spending...if a trend develops of reduced spending I will then agree to a very small tax increase to aid in paying the debt off faster {and only because the faster it is paid the less is paid in interest}
 

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Fiscal Cliff! Fiscal Cliff!
55ms9.gif

Ok Ok

;)


Definition of 'Fiscal Cliff'
A combination of expiring tax cuts and across-the-board government spending cuts scheduled to become effective Dec. 31, 2012. The idea behind the fiscal cliff was that if the federal government allowed these two events to proceed as planned, they would have a detrimental effect on an already shaky economy, perhaps sending it back into an official recession as it cut household incomes, increased unemployment rates and undermined consumer and investor confidence. At the same time, it was predicted that going over the fiscal cliff would significantly reduce the federal budget deficit

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiscalcliff.asp#ixzz2G87S48aN
 

The Man

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Its just a percentage and doesnt equate to the actual revenues.
lets say the fed govt needs 3 trillion to run off of for one year{just tossing out a random figure here}...what difference does it make if that 3 trillion is 20 30 or 40 percent of GDP...It doesnt....as long as they get their 3 trillion.
Your graph only offers the "excuse" for a tax hike to make it appear revenues are down ..when the revenues are not down...as per my graph

And we also must consider when GDP is higher in general so are revenues as the govt is benefiting from business...thus more revenues as a result....the percentage of GDP may not follow with linearity but its still an increase in revenues.

We want the govt to operate on a lower percentage of GDP not a higher percentage of GDP.
Something else to consider is state and local spending as well..it has increased...thus showing larger responsibilities are being held by the state and local govts...thus the feds should be able to operate on less.
Spending has increased 40 times since 1960 for fed state and local combined.
While we have population growth and inflation to adjust for for that 40x figure we can see that spending increases are actually just a trend and not an actual necessity.
How much more does our govt do for us than they did in 1960....same needs same people.
I just cant agree to any more hikes...I want to see reduced spending...if a trend develops of reduced spending I will then agree to a very small tax increase to aid in paying the debt off faster {and only because the faster it is paid the less is paid in interest}

Just to add to this here is a chart showing GDP increasing 5 fold{roughly} since 1980

_11853.3_12623_13377.2_14028.7_14369.1_13939_14508.png

If we were to have a constant percent of govt revenues percent of GDP this would mean an increase of 5 fold in revenues.
Why does the fed govt needs 5x the revenues since 1980?
As said they dont need 5x more....this is why it has not held constant percentage wise
But has increased roughly 5 x....do they need 5x more the funds to operate than in 1980.
No...they just want acquire these funds by taking advantage of increased trading.
Why?....as they feels it is fair and no other reason.
In other words..."Here is what we can take without collapsing the economy"
Here is the problem..when you add in the state and local increases as of current we are already at that 6x mark.{revenue gains}..If federal gains{revenues} are increased and state and local are not decreased
Then we have exceeded that same percent GDP in combined burdens....which will squeeze us close to that 40 percent mark for state fed and local combined...this is huge when you consider that much of the GDP includes much Govt spending itself.
Remember also that GDP in not combined incomes and or earning it is a sum of exchanges...which over reflects actual earnings.
If you went in to a store and bought retail....those funds paid wages on a worker that came into your store to purchase retail..that dollar is counted twice.
same applies no matter which outlet it is spent....it has the same effect...people spend their money ...much of this money was earned through trading.{retail or service}
Actual income or earnings is much more difficult to acquire and is not information as readily available as GDP.
Why?
As they dont want people to see how just much actual "earnings" are going to the govt.
Sure 35 percent govt revenues {fed state and local combined} sounds fair thus why GDP is used rather than actual earnings.
Fact is they should be operating on much much less...Does it really takes 5 to 6 times the funds to provide the same needs to the people as 1980?....IMO no...we should be able to cut that number in half{to triple}.
Can you image how much the economy would boom if the average household was 25k average richer per year?
It would boom...but it will still bust later...why we always have these boom and bust cycles....people will charge what you are willing to pay...since we all would be richer by 25 k {average per household}...prices would start to climb.
The rich are not as affected as much by their own 25 K......they will want your 25 k and can raise prices as you will pay the extra cost...they now got richer...isnt much we can do about it..

Whats the solution?
Raise taxes..so we cant buy stuff to make em rich?.
Ok just for demonstration..lets tax only the rich.
The lower man now has more power to buy...so the rich charge him more anyway.
Plus they recoup the loss in raising prices..as you now have it to spend.
No one has gained here....as in 2 to 4 years it will balance off and bust again.
So what do you do?
You never let the low man have to low a tax.
Why not...if you do then you can not lower it anymore..thus you cant stimulate the economy.
With the tax cuts that were given to the lower class they spent...since they were able to buy prices go up to match.
Thus why Obama could not really do much in that area.
Had Bush not been having these low taxes on low incomes and EIC ...this could have been put in place during a recession...to stimulate the economy...he should have eased taxes back in at the lower levels somewhat...but he didnt now we have a mess on our hands...how can we lower taxes on the lower class when it cant be lowered anymore?
What I am trying to say here is you adjust the "buyers" tax to throttle the economy not the "sellers"
problem is we left the throttle wide open as the low man has nothing to gain in tax cuts...you cant throttle it further...already super low rates and EIC for many in the lower class.

Now would be a bad time to introduce taxes back for the lower class as the economy long since balanced off {finished accelerating} from all the cuts.,,and we are still slowing recovering.

Lowering them on the rich will provide some relief /prices lower somewhat but the results are slower and not as pro profound maybe hire an extra guy..same may choose to expand..raising them will cause the opposite.

I just cant approve of any tax hike unless the are injected back into the economy with one thing in mind jobs...Jobs Which cycle back to cause other jobs in the private industry.
 
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Stone

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Its just a percentage and doesnt equate to the actual revenues. lets say the fed govt needs 3 trillion to run off of for one year{just tossing out a random figure here}...what difference does it make if that 3 trillion is 20 30 or 40 percent of GDP...It doesnt....as long as they get their 3 trillion. Your graph only offers the "excuse" for a tax hike to make it appear revenues are down ..when the revenues are not down...as per my graph And we also must consider when GDP is higher in general so are revenues as the govt is benefiting from business...thus more revenues as a result....the percentage of GDP may not follow with linearity but its still an increase in revenues. We want the govt to operate on a lower percentage of GDP not a higher percentage of GDP. Something else to consider is state and local spending as well..it has increased...thus showing larger responsibilities are being held by the state and local govts...thus the feds should be able to operate on less. Spending has increased 40 times since 1960 for fed state and local combined. While we have population growth and inflation to adjust for for that 40x figure we can see that spending increases are actually just a trend and not an actual necessity. How much more does our govt do for us than they did in 1960....same needs same people. I just cant agree to any more hikes...I want to see reduced spending...if a trend develops of reduced spending I will then agree to a very small tax increase to aid in paying the debt off faster {and only because the faster it is paid the less is paid in interest}
Its just a percentage and doesnt equate to the actual revenues.
Your usage is still out of context , not used by economists and inappropriate. TM, you are simply wrong and trying to make an association that does not exist. % GDP demonstrates relative ability to accomplish generating the revenue where as your method ignores it. A blogger with a political bias might use your method.
We want the govt to operate on a lower percentage of GDP not a higher percentage of GDP.
You don't understand the graph I posted.......an extreme debt load as we are experiencing needs a higher Revenue collected (% of GDP) to pay off the debt, not a lower % because we have been experiencing a mostly stagnant economy..........your current argument leads to default on the present debt load. Operating on less can certainly influence the need for less revenue ......but it does not address the current extreme debt load nor the future debt load of a slowly recovering economy and this is where the Wikipedia graph and the one in the Ted video become important and show revenue declining since ~2008. To deny it as you have done is intellectually dishonest and does not represent the financial predicament of our government. I suggest you watch that TED video closer.
I just cant agree to any more hikes...I want to see reduced spending
Irrelevant to your incorrect usage of terminology.
 

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Ok Ok ;) Definition of 'Fiscal Cliff' A combination of expiring tax cuts and across-the-board government spending cuts scheduled to become effective Dec. 31, 2012. The idea behind the fiscal cliff was that if the federal government allowed these two events to proceed as planned, they would have a detrimental effect on an already shaky economy, perhaps sending it back into an official recession as it cut household incomes, increased unemployment rates and undermined consumer and investor confidence. At the same time, it was predicted that going over the fiscal cliff would significantly reduce the federal budget deficit Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiscalcliff.asp#ixzz2G87S48aN
Indeed. And the Wikipedia graph showing the decline in revenues and an increase in debt load clearly demonstrates the seriousness of the financial condition of our government.
 
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