You have a good way of downplaying strength of schedule. If the last four weeks Baltimore plays and beats Tennessee, Houston, Green Bay and Cleveland. and Indy plays and beats Chicago, Seattle, San Diego and Dallas. Would you still say that Baltimore is the better team?
If that could have happened then yeah I might actually see the Colts as the team to beat right now, but it didn't. The only team they played out of that group was Dallas which they lost so I'm not sure where you are going with that. I wouldn't called Dallas a great team either, they play in the NFC and are out of the playoffs already. Baltimore did however hand San Diego 1 of their only 2 losses. Baltimore also beat Tenn.
Regular season really doesn't mean crap now anyway. I am basing most of my judgements postseason history. Dungy and Manning haven't been to a Superbowl and generally don't have good histories in the postseason. On the other hand Billick has won a Superbowl and McNair has played in one.