US Report Plays Down Iran Threat

[Peter Parka]

US report plays down Iran threat
Iran appears "less determined" to develop nuclear weapons than previously thought, US intelligence officials say. Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 but is continuing to enrich uranium, a National Intelligence Estimate assessment has concluded.
Enriched uranium is used in nuclear bombs, but Tehran says the aims of its nuclear activities are peaceful.
A senior advisor to President Bush said the report was "positive", but the risk of a nuclear Iran remained "serious".
'Technical problems'
The declassified summary of the report, which draws together information from the US's 16 intelligence agencies, says with "high confidence" that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 "in response to international pressure".






The assessment says with "moderate confidence" that the programme has not restarted. This is a turnaround from previous assessments, when US intelligence agencies believed Iran was trying to develop a nuclear weapon.
Iran made "significant progress" in 2007 installing gas centrifuges used to enrich uranium - a process necessary for producing the fissile nuclear material needed to build a nuclear bomb, the report says.
But the report's authors judge with "moderate confidence" that Iran "still faces significant technical problems" operating the new equipment.
And they conclude that the country is not likely to have enough highly enriched uranium to build a bomb until 2010-2015.
'Right strategy'
US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said the report's findings confirmed that the US is "right to be worried" about Iran's nuclear ambitions and that President George W Bush "has the right strategy".
He stressed that the international community should "turn up the pressure on Iran" using diplomatic isolation, UN sanctions and other financial leverage.
The BBC News website's world affairs correspondent Paul Reynolds says the report is cautious in its assessment of Iran's nuclear activities and provides little evidence for those who would like an early military attack.
He says it will strengthen the hand of those who want further sanctions since it states that past pressure has worked.
BBC security correspondent Gordon Corera says the estimate is in stark contrast to the alarmist and hawkish language coming from some parts of the administration - last month Mr Bush warned that stopping Iran developing nuclear technology was vital to prevent World War III.

Story from BBC NEWS:

 

[Tim]

U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says.
A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.
The estimate is less severe than a 2005 report that judged the Iranian leadership was "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure."

source...

Very interesting....

Sorry Donnie, haven't found it on Fox News for ya yet.

 

[dt3]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

That would be very, very good news.

Of course CNN loves this intelligence, but jumps all over Bush for believe the WMD intelligence :dunno

 

[Peter Parka]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

It's on BBC too, just put that up in a thread, feel free to delete it now.

 

[dt3]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

Here ya go Timmeh:

FOXNews.com - National Intelligence Team: Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003 - Politics | Republican Party | Democratic Party | Political Spectrum

 

[Tim]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

That would be very, very good news.

Of course CNN loves this intelligence, but jumps all over Bush for believe the WMD intelligence :dunno

The only difference is that this is OUR intelligence... it's just now being declassified for the rest of us slobs. But that would mean that our administration had this all along... so then why were they still calling for Iran to stop?

 

[Tim]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

It's on BBC too, just put that up in a thread, feel free to delete it now.

I'll merge the two articles...

 

[dt3]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

The only difference is that this is OUR intelligence... it's just now being declassified for the rest of us slobs. But that would mean that our administration had this all along... so then why were they still calling for Iran to stop?

The Fox article says the report is from mid-07 :confused

 

[Tim]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

The Fox article says the report is from mid-07 :confused

You are right, I read that wrong...


But take a minute and read the article posted on all three sites and see the huge difference in how it's presented...

From Fox

WASHINGTON — Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure, but is continuing to enrich uranium and could be capable of developing a weapon as early as late 2009, the U.S. intelligence community has concluded.
The "high confidence" conclusion was revealed in a declassified portion of a national intelligence estimate released Monday.
The new intelligence estimate "confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen. But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem," National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said in a written statement.

From CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says.
A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.
The estimate is less severe than a 2005 report that judged the Iranian leadership was "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure."

There is such a difference in which the way the information is passed on... well I just read the NIE and Fox seems to be putting the slant on the information... because I get a different feel after reading the NIE first hand.

 

[dt3]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

You are right, I read that wrong...


But take a minute and read the article posted on all three sites and see the huge difference in how it's presented...

From Fox


From CNN


There is such a difference in which the way the information is passed on... well I just read the NIE and Fox seems to be putting the slant on the information... because I get a different feel after reading the NIE first hand.

The two parts you pointed out are regarding two totally different points in the NIE. From the NIE:

We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran
technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009,
is very unlikely.

We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically
producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015
(INR judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because
foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.) All agencies recognize
possibility that this capability may not be attained until​

after 2015.​

 

[BadBoy@TheWheel]

I do think one could read between the lines, and realize that Iran is a realistic nuclear threat. Maybe not to us, but in general.

I do appreciate the spin that each respective new's affiliation puts on things. But that's where we need to be responsible in seeing through the bullshit and seeing the gold.

 

[dt3]

I'm just glad they decided to back down, even if it's only for now.

 

[Tim]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

The two parts you pointed out are regarding two totally different points in the NIE. From the NIE:

We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran
technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009,
is very unlikely.

We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically
producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015
(INR judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because
foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.) All agencies recognize
possibility that this capability may not be attained until​

after 2015.​

I know... when I read the report I noticed that... but Fox put the emphasis on "capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009"
while leaving out the "is very unlikely" part.

And the fact that they reworded it to this. "but is continuing to enrich uranium and could be capable of developing a weapon as early as late 2009"

It makes it sound much worse than the report actually was... :dunno

 

[dt3]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

I know... when I read the report I noticed that... but Fox put the emphasis on "capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009"
while leaving out the "is very unlikely" part.

And the fact that they reworded it to this. "but is continuing to enrich uranium and could be capable of developing a weapon as early as late 2009"

It makes it sound much worse than the report actually was... :dunno

I see what you're saying. And I do agree to an extent. Maybe that's why they put the link to the real thing to let discerning readers decipher the BS.

But I also believe if the report was worded to say Iran is most likely trying to acheive a nuclear weapon, CNN would downplay the significance.

 

[BadBoy@TheWheel]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

I see what you're saying. And I do agree to an extent. Maybe that's why they put the link to the real thing to let discerning readers decipher the BS.

But I also believe if the report was worded to say Iran is most likely trying to acheive a nuclear weapon, CNN would downplay the significance.

My point is...Who cares what CNN does with it, the news, the threat is clearly marked. Hell the guy has warned us in video taped talks about his intent to pursue nuclear weapons.

He's a nut job, with a nice smile.

 

[dt3]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

My point is...Who cares what CNN does with it, the news, the threat is clearly marked. Hell the guy has warned us in video taped talks about his intent to pursue nuclear weapons.

He's a nut job, with a nice smile.

Oh, I agree completely. But he's backed off for now (as far as we can tell). Until we get actionable intel that says he's started again, there's no need for us to do anything.

 

[BadBoy@TheWheel]

Re: U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

Oh, I agree completely. But he's backed off for now (as far as we can tell). Until we get actionable intel that says he's started again, there's no need for us to do anything.

Right, agreed. Personally *dons flame proof suit* he is dead on so far as his right to do what he was doing, I have never understood why we are the only ones with the cool toy's. I dunno, maybe I am just crazy.

BUT he should be given the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Tim]

I never really worried about him too much... unlike here in the US, the President of Iran doesn't hold the power or control the military. That is in the hands of a more stable leader... not perfect, but a hell of a lot more stable than this ass wipe.

 

[IntruderLS1]

The problem with these reports is that they get people all worked up, but are the sum totals of a group of educated guesses.

If the NIE released this month is correct, then the NIE released in '05 was over two years off the mark. If '05 was correct, then this one is way off target. Which to believe?

We have to judge the world through the scope of common sense as much as we do through intelligence efforts.

If Bush did nothing to isolate Iran and something happened, the '05 report would be front page news until he was booed out of office.

He takes steps to isolate Iran, and now this report comes in, and all of the sudden, we've been too hard on them, and Bush is making it out to sound worse than it is because he is a war monger.

Since there is literally no way to win the PR war, the only thing we can do is what we feel to be right at the time. :shrug: